Odds of Dying, National Safety Council
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The CPSC says fires where the mattress was 'one
of the first' items to ignite results in 440 deaths annually.
What does 'one of the first' mean? How much
responsibility should the mattress have for these deaths? How many lives
will the new open flame mattress fire law actually save? The new law will
only delay the mattress burning, not stop it. The CPSC hopes to save up to
3/4 of these lives or about 300 per year after ten or more years when all
mattresses are replaced. The real number might be far lower, the real number
saved can be calculated to only 21 using the CPSC's own
data.
If we accept the CPSC number of 300 this
means your risk of dying from a mattress fire, with 300 million people in
the US, is one in one million
If you accept 100, or 50 as the number
saved your
risk is one in 3 Million, or one in 6 Million. If the true number is 21,
your risk is one in fourteen million.
By comparison your risk of death from other
accidents is far higher. Here are some risks from the National Safety
Council: One year odds are approximated by dividing the 2002 population
(287,941,220) by the number of deaths. Lifetime odds are approximated by
dividing the one-year odds by the life expectancy of a person born in 2002
(77.3 years).
Odds of Death Due to Injury, United States, 2002
Type of Accident or Manner of Injury |
Deaths |
One Year Odds |
Lifetime Odds |
All External Causes of Mortality, V01-Y89, *U01, *U03 |
164,112 |
1,755 |
23 |
|
Deaths Due to Unintentional (Accidental) Injuries,
V01-X59, Y85-Y86 |
106,742 |
2,698 |
35 |
|
|
Transport Accidents, V01-V99, Y85 |
48,366 |
5,953 |
77 |
|
|
Pedestrian, V01-V09 |
6,091 |
47,273 |
612 |
|
|
Pedalcyclist, V10-V19 |
767 |
375,412 |
4,857 |
|
|
Air and space transport accidents, V95-V97 |
653 |
440,951 |
5,704 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Car occupant, V40-V49 |
16,337 |
17,625 |
228 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Accidental poisoning by and exposure to noxious
substances, X40-X49 |
17,550 |
16,407 |
212 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legal execution, Y35.5 |
67 |
4,297,630 |
55,597 |
|
You can see you have a far greater risk of
dying from the chemicals in our modern environment. You are more likely
to die from toxic chemicals than to die in a car accident. Now, the
government is requiring more toxic chemicals in all our mattresses.
Your risk of 'Legal Execution' by our
government might be greatly increased with this new law.
See the whole National Safety Council 'Odds
of Dying' Table:
http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
|